Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TS Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (2887.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.75 - $324.51$284.48
Multi-Stage$43.00 - $46.94$44.93
Blended Fair Value$164.71
Current Price$18.00
Upside815.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.66%7.95%0.590.500.540.490.490.430.440.350.330.11
YoY Growth--18.71%-8.17%10.79%-0.41%14.80%-2.13%24.83%7.89%188.87%-59.12%
Dividend Yield--3.44%2.87%3.55%2.72%4.37%4.46%3.89%3.18%3.48%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26,015.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,359.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,655.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,203.103,251.941,951.16
Cash Retained (M)1,655.571,655.571,655.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,203.10-3,251.94-1,951.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3,547.53-1,596.37-295.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,943.4915,943.4915,943.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.22-0.10-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.22-0.10-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.75$284.48$324.51
Upside / Downside398.60%1,480.44%1,702.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26,015.5127,706.5229,507.4531,425.4333,468.0835,643.5136,712.81
Payout Ratio93.64%92.91%92.18%91.45%90.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,359.9425,741.8427,200.4728,739.9630,364.6732,079.1633,959.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23,824.2224,050.0424,275.86
Year 2 PV (M)23,298.8523,742.6324,190.59
Year 3 PV (M)22,783.6523,437.6924,104.12
Year 4 PV (M)22,278.4323,135.2024,016.44
Year 5 PV (M)21,783.0222,835.1523,927.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)571,562.65599,169.33627,832.60
Equity Value (M)685,530.82716,370.04748,347.16
Shares Outstanding (M)15,943.4915,943.4915,943.49
Fair Value$43.00$44.93$46.94
Upside / Downside138.88%149.62%160.76%

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