Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tokyo Electron Device Limited (2760.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,236.34 - $50,511.48$47,336.66
Multi-Stage$7,118.93 - $7,787.93$7,447.30
Blended Fair Value$27,391.98
Current Price$2,833.00
Upside866.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS31.94%19.91%126.54130.8981.1563.3030.1831.6525.7420.2220.1219.99
YoY Growth---3.32%61.29%28.19%109.75%-4.65%22.99%27.27%0.50%0.67%-2.92%
Dividend Yield--4.47%3.01%2.31%3.71%1.66%2.64%4.03%3.00%3.58%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,599.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,540.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,059.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,519.80949.88569.93
Cash Retained (M)4,059.004,059.004,059.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,519.80-949.88-569.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,539.203,109.133,489.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.9229.9229.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share84.87103.92116.62
LTM Dividend per Share118.32118.32118.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share84.87103.92116.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend203.19222.24234.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,236.34$47,336.66$50,511.48
Upside / Downside543.71%1,570.90%1,682.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,599.008,092.948,618.989,179.219,775.8610,411.2910,723.63
Payout Ratio46.59%55.27%63.95%72.63%81.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,540.004,472.815,511.936,667.237,949.449,370.169,919.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,153.544,192.914,232.28
Year 2 PV (M)4,753.134,843.674,935.05
Year 3 PV (M)5,339.005,492.275,648.44
Year 4 PV (M)5,911.396,138.726,372.55
Year 5 PV (M)6,470.516,783.037,107.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)186,363.47195,364.89204,710.82
Equity Value (M)212,991.03222,815.49233,006.67
Shares Outstanding (M)29.9229.9229.92
Fair Value$7,118.93$7,447.30$7,787.93
Upside / Downside151.29%162.88%174.90%

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