Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lion Travel Service Co., Ltd. (2731.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,030.45 - $3,083.95$2,890.11
Multi-Stage$423.77 - $463.52$443.28
Blended Fair Value$1,666.69
Current Price$158.50
Upside951.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.91%10.30%7.960.000.000.001.492.843.882.993.433.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-47.37%-26.92%30.00%-13.04%9.52%5.00%
Dividend Yield--6.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.62%5.19%4.49%2.59%3.85%2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,453.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)699.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)754.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.74181.71109.03
Cash Retained (M)754.12754.12754.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.74-181.71-109.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)463.38572.40645.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.7493.7493.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.946.116.88
LTM Dividend per Share7.467.467.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.946.116.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.4113.5714.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,030.45$2,890.11$3,083.95
Upside / Downside550.12%1,723.41%1,845.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,453.701,548.191,648.821,756.001,870.141,991.692,051.45
Payout Ratio48.12%56.50%64.87%73.25%81.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)699.58874.721,069.671,286.261,526.501,792.531,897.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)811.56819.25826.95
Year 2 PV (M)920.78938.32956.02
Year 3 PV (M)1,027.281,056.771,086.82
Year 4 PV (M)1,131.121,174.621,219.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,232.341,291.861,353.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,602.9036,274.2438,009.54
Equity Value (M)39,725.9841,555.0643,452.35
Shares Outstanding (M)93.7493.7493.74
Fair Value$423.77$443.28$463.52
Upside / Downside167.36%179.67%192.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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