Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.19 - $14.27 | $11.54 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.88 - $24.06 | $22.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $17.24 | |
| Current Price | $8.68 | |
| Upside | 98.67% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01 | 0.69 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -98.61% | 57.42% | 47.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.09% | 5.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,349.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,027.98 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 321.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 269.83 | 168.64 | 101.19 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 321.17 | 321.17 | 321.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -269.83 | -168.64 | -101.19 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 51.34 | 152.52 | 219.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $9.19 | $11.54 | $14.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 5.83% | 32.93% | 64.44% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,349.15 | 1,335.65 | 1,322.30 | 1,309.08 | 1,295.98 | 1,283.02 | 1,321.52 |
| Payout Ratio | 76.19% | 78.96% | 81.72% | 84.48% | 87.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,027.98 | 1,054.58 | 1,080.54 | 1,105.88 | 1,130.60 | 1,154.72 | 1,222.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 981.97 | 991.99 | 1,002.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 936.86 | 956.08 | 975.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 892.82 | 920.43 | 948.60 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 849.93 | 885.15 | 921.46 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 808.29 | 850.38 | 894.20 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 25,853.12 | 27,199.36 | 28,601.10 |
| Equity Value (M) | 30,322.99 | 31,803.38 | 33,342.86 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| Fair Value | $21.88 | $22.95 | $24.06 |
| Upside / Downside | 152.10% | 164.41% | 177.21% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CCRO3.SA | CCR S.A. | 3.53% | $0.48 | 66.57% |
| HMU.DE | HMS Bergbau AG | 3.53% | $1.69 | 29.89% |
| RAUTE.HE | Raute Oyj | 3.53% | $0.52 | 26.97% |
| RWE.DE | RWE AG | 3.53% | $1.66 | 46.76% |
| SNL.AX | Supply Network Limited | 3.53% | $1.13 | 67.28% |
| 0NHS.L | Nutrien Ltd. | 3.52% | $2.18 | 58.76% |
| CELL.MI | Cellularline S.p.A. | 3.52% | $0.09 | 34.70% |
| INFREA.ST | Infrea AB | 3.52% | $0.50 | 67.57% |
| ISSP.JK | PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | 3.52% | $15.00 | 19.85% |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | 3.52% | $1.92 | 52.47% |
| PARP.PA | Groupe Partouche S.A. | 3.52% | $0.64 | 38.61% |
| PKI.TO | Parkland Corporation | 3.52% | $1.40 | 73.81% |
| SMU.SN | SMU S.A. | 3.52% | $5.49 | 46.99% |
| 161390.KS | Hankook Tire & Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $2,000.00 | 25.86% |
| 300360.SZ | Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.61 | 52.03% |
| 5106.KL | Axis Real Estate Investment Trust | 3.51% | $0.07 | 56.99% |
| 601128.SS | Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.25 | 19.56% |
| INTP.JK | PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | 3.51% | $259.81 | 43.04% |
| RATO-A.ST | Ratos AB (publ) | 3.51% | $1.35 | 12.15% |
| 002887.SZ | Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd | 3.50% | $0.33 | 84.50% |
| 603062.SS | MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited | 3.50% | $1.66 | 74.27% |
| CMCL | Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | 3.50% | $0.92 | 35.87% |
| DLO | DLocal Limited | 3.50% | $0.49 | 87.74% |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | 3.50% | $1.74 | 67.48% |
| TWL.MI | TraWell Co S.p.A. | 3.50% | $0.21 | 28.69% |
| WJP.SI | VICOM Ltd | 3.50% | $0.06 | 66.95% |
| 005610.KS | SPC Samlip Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1,803.39 | 45.19% |
| 0RFL.L | VAT Group AG | 3.49% | $12.50 | 88.50% |
| 2030.HK | Cabbeen Fashion Limited | 3.49% | $0.05 | 63.92% |
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| 5246.KL | Westports Holdings Berhad | 3.49% | $0.20 | 71.36% |
| 5989.T | H-One Co.,Ltd. | 3.49% | $49.44 | 14.49% |
| ACO-X.TO | ATCO Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.98 | 50.80% |
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| 6722.TWO | Whetron Electronics Co.,Ltd. | 3.48% | $1.99 | 24.71% |
| HOLM-A.ST | Holmen AB (publ) | 3.48% | $12.23 | 66.11% |
| 002206.SZ | Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.,Ltd | 3.47% | $0.20 | 43.30% |
| 3004.SR | Northern Region Cement Company | 3.47% | $0.25 | 79.89% |
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