Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (2491.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,699.99 - $27,519.24$17,355.36
Multi-Stage$3,724.91 - $4,077.07$3,897.74
Blended Fair Value$10,626.55
Current Price$795.00
Upside1,236.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.00%14.24%66.5380.3479.2862.4351.9947.4420.747.4312.2315.24
YoY Growth---17.18%1.34%27.00%20.06%9.59%128.82%179.14%-39.28%-19.70%-13.29%
Dividend Yield--8.13%7.40%4.66%1.67%1.45%2.67%1.00%0.52%2.83%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,011.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)602.20376.38225.83
Cash Retained (M)1,784.001,784.001,784.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-602.20-376.38-225.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,181.801,407.631,558.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.6621.6621.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share54.5764.9971.94
LTM Dividend per Share56.6556.6556.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share54.5764.9971.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend111.22121.65128.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Fair Value$6,699.99$17,355.36$27,519.24
Upside / Downside742.77%2,083.06%3,361.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,011.003,191.573,382.973,585.843,800.894,028.824,149.69
Payout Ratio40.75%50.60%60.45%70.30%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,227.001,614.952,045.022,520.863,046.413,625.943,838.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,498.701,512.981,527.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.201,794.911,828.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,014.732,072.852,132.07
Year 4 PV (M)2,259.512,346.832,436.65
Year 5 PV (M)2,495.762,616.892,742.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,643.9874,072.7777,633.42
Equity Value (M)80,673.8984,417.2388,301.02
Shares Outstanding (M)21.6621.6621.66
Fair Value$3,724.91$3,897.74$4,077.07
Upside / Downside368.54%390.28%412.84%

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