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Gaush Meditech Ltd (2407.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.62 - $15.81$13.09
Multi-Stage$20.95 - $22.99$21.95
Blended Fair Value$17.52
Current Price$6.21
Upside182.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)192.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.5224.0714.44
Cash Retained (M)44.0444.0444.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.52-24.07-14.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.5219.9729.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.40147.40147.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.140.20
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.140.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.62$13.09$15.81
Upside / Downside71.01%110.80%154.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)192.60190.67188.76186.87185.01183.16188.65
Payout Ratio77.13%79.71%82.28%84.85%87.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.56151.98155.31158.57161.74164.84174.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)139.76141.18142.61
Year 2 PV (M)131.34134.03136.76
Year 3 PV (M)123.31127.12131.02
Year 4 PV (M)115.67120.46125.40
Year 5 PV (M)108.40114.05119.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,470.032,598.652,732.57
Equity Value (M)3,088.503,235.493,388.27
Shares Outstanding (M)147.40147.40147.40
Fair Value$20.95$21.95$22.99
Upside / Downside237.40%253.46%270.15%

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