Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

SINOPEC Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd. (2386.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.41 - $47.99$30.99
Multi-Stage$28.99 - $31.78$30.36
Blended Fair Value$30.68
Current Price$5.45
Upside462.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.22%1.36%0.360.320.330.270.310.230.250.140.260.30
YoY Growth--12.47%-3.09%23.32%-14.12%34.62%-4.92%81.51%-47.28%-15.28%-4.41%
Dividend Yield--5.73%8.66%10.97%8.59%11.17%5.61%4.35%2.22%4.43%5.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,867.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,015.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,852.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)973.52608.45365.07
Cash Retained (M)1,852.021,852.021,852.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-973.52-608.45-365.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)878.501,243.571,486.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,405.054,405.054,405.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.280.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.280.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$21.41$30.99$47.99
Upside / Downside292.88%468.69%780.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,867.625,023.405,184.165,350.075,521.295,697.995,868.93
Payout Ratio61.95%67.56%73.17%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,015.603,393.903,793.324,214.844,659.445,128.195,428.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)3,158.263,189.163,220.07
Year 2 PV (M)3,284.873,349.463,414.69
Year 3 PV (M)3,396.473,497.153,599.80
Year 4 PV (M)3,494.063,632.833,775.70
Year 5 PV (M)3,578.563,757.103,942.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,777.18116,303.90122,049.03
Equity Value (M)127,689.40133,729.60140,001.97
Shares Outstanding (M)4,405.054,405.054,405.05
Fair Value$28.99$30.36$31.78
Upside / Downside431.87%457.03%483.16%

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