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Definitive Analysis

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MGM China Holdings Limited (2282.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.18 - $318.97$124.47
Multi-Stage$52.62 - $57.54$55.04
Blended Fair Value$89.75
Current Price$12.88
Upside596.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.48%-7.70%0.700.000.000.000.080.130.160.270.211.21
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.16%-20.50%-41.66%30.19%-82.58%-21.99%
Dividend Yield--7.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.62%1.00%1.22%1.20%1.31%12.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,804.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,934.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,869.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,760.811,100.51660.30
Cash Retained (M)3,869.543,869.543,869.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,760.81-1,100.51-660.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,108.732,769.033,209.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,815.203,815.203,815.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.84
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Fair Value$71.18$124.47$318.97
Upside / Downside452.67%866.39%2,376.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,804.069,300.109,824.0910,377.6110,962.3111,579.9511,927.35
Payout Ratio56.05%62.84%69.63%76.42%83.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,934.525,844.056,840.417,930.499,121.7010,421.9611,032.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)5,392.505,444.035,495.57
Year 2 PV (M)5,824.175,936.026,048.94
Year 3 PV (M)6,230.566,410.926,594.71
Year 4 PV (M)6,612.706,869.147,132.96
Year 5 PV (M)6,971.537,311.097,663.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)169,741.78178,009.50186,596.29
Equity Value (M)200,773.23209,980.70219,532.24
Shares Outstanding (M)3,815.203,815.203,815.20
Fair Value$52.62$55.04$57.54
Upside / Downside308.58%327.31%346.75%

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