Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (2057.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$883.15 - $2,112.22$1,979.46
Multi-Stage$320.20 - $349.89$334.77
Blended Fair Value$1,157.12
Current Price$126.34
Upside815.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.56%0.00%6.752.491.591.631.981.531.080.000.000.14
YoY Growth--170.47%56.63%-2.27%-17.91%29.79%41.96%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.71%1.57%0.81%1.01%1.09%0.70%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,824.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,661.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,163.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,764.961,103.10661.86
Cash Retained (M)1,163.801,163.801,163.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,764.96-1,103.10-661.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-601.1660.70501.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)830.89830.89830.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.720.070.60
LTM Dividend per Share9.229.229.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.720.070.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.509.299.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$883.15$1,979.46$2,112.22
Upside / Downside599.03%1,466.77%1,571.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,824.809,398.4110,009.3110,659.9111,352.8012,090.7412,453.46
Payout Ratio86.81%87.45%88.09%88.72%89.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,661.008,218.898,816.939,457.9910,145.1410,881.6611,519.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,643.727,716.187,788.63
Year 2 PV (M)7,626.087,771.347,917.96
Year 3 PV (M)7,608.087,826.488,049.02
Year 4 PV (M)7,589.737,881.618,181.83
Year 5 PV (M)7,571.047,936.738,316.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)228,016.92239,030.22250,465.03
Equity Value (M)266,055.59278,162.56290,718.89
Shares Outstanding (M)830.89830.89830.89
Fair Value$320.20$334.77$349.89
Upside / Downside153.45%164.98%176.94%

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