Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co., Ltd. (2027.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.11 - $215.14$110.72
Multi-Stage$61.16 - $66.97$64.01
Blended Fair Value$87.37
Current Price$38.50
Upside126.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.29%18.62%1.131.891.400.940.922.310.330.180.170.21
YoY Growth---40.00%34.67%48.78%2.38%-60.16%593.41%83.01%8.06%-17.93%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.30%5.19%3.70%2.33%3.62%11.27%0.97%0.88%1.36%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,074.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,342.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,731.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,214.90759.31455.59
Cash Retained (M)3,731.973,731.973,731.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,214.90-759.31-455.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,517.072,972.663,276.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.462,270.462,270.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.311.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.031.031.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.311.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$69.11$110.72$215.14
Upside / Downside79.52%187.59%458.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,074.486,373.966,688.217,017.957,363.957,727.007,958.81
Payout Ratio38.56%48.85%59.14%69.43%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,342.513,113.723,955.274,872.235,870.006,954.307,361.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)2,878.282,905.982,933.67
Year 2 PV (M)3,379.753,445.103,511.08
Year 3 PV (M)3,848.503,960.664,074.98
Year 4 PV (M)4,286.034,453.394,625.59
Year 5 PV (M)4,693.814,924.015,163.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)119,770.60125,644.63131,746.89
Equity Value (M)138,856.97145,333.76152,055.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.462,270.462,270.46
Fair Value$61.16$64.01$66.97
Upside / Downside58.85%66.26%73.95%

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