Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SSY Group Limited (2005.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.83 - $135.87$127.33
Multi-Stage$20.01 - $21.89$20.93
Blended Fair Value$74.13
Current Price$2.78
Upside2,566.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.05%8.50%0.180.150.130.100.110.100.080.060.020.20
YoY Growth--19.89%14.79%28.26%-9.09%10.07%25.41%41.27%140.00%-87.76%146.03%
Dividend Yield--5.05%3.07%3.04%2.54%2.55%1.62%1.40%1.16%0.97%9.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,024.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,022.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,002.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)404.93253.08151.85
Cash Retained (M)1,002.281,002.281,002.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-404.93-253.08-151.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)597.35749.20850.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,963.592,963.592,963.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.83$127.33$135.87
Upside / Downside1,908.31%4,480.13%4,787.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,024.662,156.272,296.422,445.692,604.662,773.962,857.18
Payout Ratio50.50%58.40%66.30%74.20%82.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,022.391,259.201,522.481,814.672,138.412,496.572,642.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,170.891,181.981,193.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,316.411,341.481,366.79
Year 3 PV (M)1,459.001,500.891,543.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,598.711,660.191,723.43
Year 5 PV (M)1,735.571,819.401,906.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,007.1354,519.1057,127.20
Equity Value (M)59,287.7162,023.0464,860.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,963.592,963.592,963.59
Fair Value$20.01$20.93$21.89
Upside / Downside619.62%652.82%687.26%

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