Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Luzhou Bank Co., Ltd. (1983.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.41 - $9.71$7.96
Multi-Stage$12.97 - $14.28$13.61
Blended Fair Value$10.79
Current Price$2.27
Upside375.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.49%0.00%0.170.100.040.040.090.110.150.020.030.03
YoY Growth--64.88%195.12%1.31%-63.10%-13.49%-28.29%812.76%-45.43%20.69%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.44%4.70%1.30%1.49%4.32%5.35%6.48%0.74%1.26%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,006.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,536.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.22250.76150.46
Cash Retained (M)1,536.801,536.801,536.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.22-250.76-150.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,135.581,286.031,386.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,717.752,717.752,717.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.41$7.96$9.71
Upside / Downside182.28%250.72%327.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,006.101,986.041,966.181,946.511,927.051,907.781,965.01
Payout Ratio23.39%36.71%50.04%63.36%76.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.30729.17983.801,233.261,477.641,717.001,817.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)674.39681.27688.15
Year 2 PV (M)841.52858.78876.22
Year 3 PV (M)975.651,005.821,036.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,081.151,125.961,172.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,161.901,222.401,285.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,510.1232,098.8533,753.08
Equity Value (M)35,244.7236,993.0838,811.61
Shares Outstanding (M)2,717.752,717.752,717.75
Fair Value$12.97$13.61$14.28
Upside / Downside471.29%499.63%529.11%

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