Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Uju Holding Limited (1948.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.11 - $6.89$5.33
Multi-Stage$14.72 - $16.26$15.47
Blended Fair Value$10.40
Current Price$2.65
Upside292.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.020.080.160.010.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--145.72%-77.95%-46.14%1,207.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.34%1.07%2.76%2.89%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)159.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.7726.1015.66
Cash Retained (M)159.42159.42159.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.77-26.10-15.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.65133.31143.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)590.92590.92590.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate4.75%4.75%4.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.11$5.33$6.89
Upside / Downside54.99%101.06%159.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.83206.74204.67202.63200.60198.59204.55
Payout Ratio23.66%36.93%50.20%63.46%76.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4176.35102.74128.60153.93178.73189.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.75%4.75%4.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)72.1572.8973.62
Year 2 PV (M)91.7693.6495.54
Year 3 PV (M)108.54111.90115.32
Year 4 PV (M)122.78127.87133.11
Year 5 PV (M)134.74141.75149.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,170.568,596.029,039.02
Equity Value (M)8,700.539,144.069,605.68
Shares Outstanding (M)590.92590.92590.92
Fair Value$14.72$15.47$16.26
Upside / Downside455.61%483.94%513.41%

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