Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Prada S.p.A. (1913.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.05 - $26.25$17.27
Multi-Stage$9.06 - $9.87$9.46
Blended Fair Value$13.36
Current Price$5.26
Upside154.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS17.95%2.22%0.140.110.070.040.000.060.080.130.110.11
YoY Growth--24.55%57.14%100.00%0.00%-100.00%-20.00%-42.71%19.01%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.83%2.16%1.33%0.62%0.00%1.63%2.61%4.35%2.88%3.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,590.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)763.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)827.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)318.13198.83119.30
Cash Retained (M)827.64827.64827.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-318.13-198.83-119.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)509.51628.81708.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,558.822,558.822,558.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.05$17.27$26.25
Upside / Downside129.05%228.28%399.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,590.651,694.041,804.151,921.422,046.322,179.332,244.71
Payout Ratio47.97%56.37%64.78%73.19%81.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)763.01955.011,168.751,406.241,669.661,961.392,076.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)861.18869.34877.50
Year 2 PV (M)950.36968.47986.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,031.121,060.721,090.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,103.991,146.441,190.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,169.461,225.941,284.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,060.3218,932.6419,838.34
Equity Value (M)23,176.4324,203.5525,268.17
Shares Outstanding (M)2,558.822,558.822,558.82
Fair Value$9.06$9.46$9.87
Upside / Downside72.19%79.83%87.74%

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