Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CITIC Telecom International Holdings Limited (1883.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.72 - $9.40$7.36
Multi-Stage$11.23 - $12.32$11.76
Blended Fair Value$9.56
Current Price$2.40
Upside298.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.48%10.70%0.260.240.230.210.200.190.160.130.110.10
YoY Growth--4.86%6.84%7.21%7.91%5.60%14.55%28.17%11.18%10.69%11.74%
Dividend Yield--11.02%7.46%8.65%8.13%8.12%6.60%5.95%6.17%4.93%3.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,646.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)235.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)376.20235.13141.08
Cash Retained (M)235.00235.00235.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-376.20-235.13-141.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)-141.20-0.1393.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,700.763,700.763,700.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.000.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.000.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.42%0.58%1.58%
Fair Value$5.72$7.36$9.40
Upside / Downside138.26%206.50%291.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,881.001,891.921,902.901,913.951,925.061,936.231,994.32
Payout Ratio87.51%88.01%88.50%89.00%89.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,646.001,664.991,684.141,703.461,722.951,742.611,844.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.42%0.58%1.58%
Year 1 PV (M)1,545.481,561.001,576.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,451.061,480.351,509.93
Year 3 PV (M)1,362.361,403.821,446.10
Year 4 PV (M)1,279.041,331.201,384.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,200.781,262.301,326.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,717.0036,495.5338,346.21
Equity Value (M)41,555.7343,534.1945,590.01
Shares Outstanding (M)3,700.763,700.763,700.76
Fair Value$11.23$11.76$12.32
Upside / Downside367.87%390.15%413.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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