Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$261.59 - $434.43$407.13
Multi-Stage$69.55 - $76.18$72.80
Blended Fair Value$239.97
Current Price$5.01
Upside4,689.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.53%17.09%0.240.260.200.090.080.100.070.030.070.05
YoY Growth---9.38%31.76%109.49%23.98%-21.33%39.63%113.32%-51.81%38.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.11%8.27%5.50%2.17%3.61%4.51%3.07%1.13%3.04%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,699.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)611.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,088.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)539.89337.43202.46
Cash Retained (M)2,088.012,088.012,088.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-539.89-337.43-202.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,548.131,750.581,885.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,235.741,235.741,235.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.421.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.421.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.751.912.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$261.59$407.13$434.43
Upside / Downside5,121.27%8,026.31%8,571.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,699.432,874.893,061.763,260.773,472.723,698.453,809.41
Payout Ratio22.65%36.12%49.59%63.06%76.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)611.421,038.411,518.322,056.242,657.673,328.613,523.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)968.56977.74986.92
Year 2 PV (M)1,320.941,346.101,371.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,668.591,716.491,765.30
Year 4 PV (M)2,011.582,088.942,168.51
Year 5 PV (M)2,349.932,463.442,581.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,622.9281,372.1485,264.84
Equity Value (M)85,942.5289,964.8494,138.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,235.741,235.741,235.74
Fair Value$69.55$72.80$76.18
Upside / Downside1,288.17%1,353.14%1,420.55%

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