Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Prinx Chengshan Holdings Limited (1809.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$321.68 - $788.06$738.53
Multi-Stage$113.54 - $124.33$118.84
Blended Fair Value$428.68
Current Price$6.94
Upside6,076.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.00%0.00%0.400.170.170.160.180.210.260.000.040.76
YoY Growth--128.41%5.10%1.15%-7.09%-14.63%-19.97%0.00%-100.00%-94.34%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.79%2.97%3.10%2.78%2.52%2.94%5.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,525.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)539.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,986.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)505.15315.72189.43
Cash Retained (M)1,986.021,986.021,986.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-505.15-315.72-189.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,480.871,670.301,796.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)637.39637.39637.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.322.622.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.322.622.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.173.473.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$321.68$738.53$788.06
Upside / Downside4,535.18%10,541.63%11,255.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,525.732,689.902,864.743,050.953,249.263,460.463,564.28
Payout Ratio21.37%35.09%48.82%62.55%76.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)539.71944.011,398.601,908.292,478.333,114.423,296.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)877.75886.07894.39
Year 2 PV (M)1,209.141,232.171,255.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,533.981,578.011,622.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,852.361,923.601,996.87
Year 5 PV (M)2,164.382,268.922,377.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,730.2767,856.7671,102.92
Equity Value (M)72,367.8775,745.5379,249.93
Shares Outstanding (M)637.39637.39637.39
Fair Value$113.54$118.84$124.33
Upside / Downside1,535.99%1,612.35%1,691.57%

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