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Tong Ren Tang Technologies Co. Ltd. (1666.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.66 - $30.16$20.59
Multi-Stage$22.04 - $24.21$23.10
Blended Fair Value$21.85
Current Price$4.50
Upside385.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.20%3.61%0.180.160.160.160.160.180.170.160.150.14
YoY Growth--12.50%-0.98%0.00%0.00%-11.11%5.88%6.25%6.67%7.14%12.00%
Dividend Yield--3.66%2.67%3.21%2.35%3.92%2.63%1.89%1.71%1.17%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,082.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)651.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)216.50135.3181.19
Cash Retained (M)651.32651.32651.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-216.50-135.31-81.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)434.82516.00570.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.781,280.781,280.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Fair Value$14.66$20.59$30.16
Upside / Downside225.80%357.47%570.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,082.501,110.771,139.771,169.531,200.071,231.411,268.35
Payout Ratio39.83%49.87%59.90%69.93%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.18553.89682.71817.89959.651,108.271,173.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)516.00521.08526.15
Year 2 PV (M)592.50604.22616.05
Year 3 PV (M)661.25680.97701.07
Year 4 PV (M)722.79751.66781.40
Year 5 PV (M)777.61816.64857.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,964.5226,217.3727,520.02
Equity Value (M)28,234.6729,591.9331,001.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.781,280.781,280.78
Fair Value$22.04$23.10$24.21
Upside / Downside389.89%413.43%437.90%

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