Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gordon Auto Body Parts Co., Ltd. (1524.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.81 - $136.00$82.08
Multi-Stage$67.32 - $73.70$70.45
Blended Fair Value$76.26
Current Price$27.85
Upside173.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.06%0.00%1.291.000.300.210.430.540.490.540.000.00
YoY Growth--30.00%233.33%42.86%-51.70%-20.00%11.11%-10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.69%1.15%1.95%3.69%5.75%4.21%4.74%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)421.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.3552.7231.63
Cash Retained (M)41.5441.5441.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.35-52.72-31.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-42.81-11.189.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.96165.96165.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.070.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.070.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.032.222.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.73%3.73%4.73%
Fair Value$54.81$82.08$136.00
Upside / Downside96.82%194.72%388.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)421.76437.48453.79470.70488.24506.44521.64
Payout Ratio90.15%90.12%90.09%90.06%90.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.21394.26408.81423.91439.57455.80482.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.73%3.73%4.73%
Year 1 PV (M)366.49370.06373.63
Year 2 PV (M)353.27360.18367.16
Year 3 PV (M)340.52350.56360.80
Year 4 PV (M)328.23341.20354.55
Year 5 PV (M)316.39332.09348.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,467.809,937.6810,426.04
Equity Value (M)11,172.7111,691.7812,230.59
Shares Outstanding (M)165.96165.96165.96
Fair Value$67.32$70.45$73.70
Upside / Downside141.73%152.96%164.62%

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