Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Indus (1497.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.67 - $142.46$133.51
Multi-Stage$22.60 - $24.72$23.64
Blended Fair Value$78.58
Current Price$5.75
Upside1,266.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS26.51%0.00%0.220.350.180.220.270.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---37.45%100.00%-20.00%-16.67%288.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.95%4.35%2.07%2.80%3.26%0.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.6640.4124.25
Cash Retained (M)123.06123.06123.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.66-40.41-24.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.4082.6598.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)451.35451.35451.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.67$133.51$142.46
Upside / Downside1,198.55%2,221.86%2,377.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.32344.34366.72390.55415.94442.98456.27
Payout Ratio61.94%67.55%73.16%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.26232.60268.30307.66351.00398.68422.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)216.74218.79220.85
Year 2 PV (M)232.96237.40241.88
Year 3 PV (M)248.92256.07263.35
Year 4 PV (M)264.62274.80285.27
Year 5 PV (M)280.07293.60307.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,958.159,390.839,840.07
Equity Value (M)10,201.4710,671.4911,159.06
Shares Outstanding (M)451.35451.35451.35
Fair Value$22.60$23.64$24.72
Upside / Downside293.08%311.19%329.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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