Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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San Fang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (1307.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.88 - $58.48$45.24
Multi-Stage$71.82 - $78.82$75.25
Blended Fair Value$60.25
Current Price$30.15
Upside99.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.57%1.59%1.490.800.500.500.800.501.692.191.641.50
YoY Growth--87.50%60.00%0.00%-37.50%60.00%-70.59%-22.73%33.29%9.44%17.71%
Dividend Yield--3.40%2.71%2.38%2.47%3.70%2.91%7.38%6.72%4.36%3.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,179.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,074.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)235.81147.3888.43
Cash Retained (M)104.92104.92104.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-235.81-147.38-88.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-130.89-42.4616.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.16399.16399.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.33-0.110.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.33-0.110.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$34.88$45.24$58.48
Upside / Downside15.69%50.05%93.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,179.031,185.971,192.961,199.991,207.061,214.171,250.60
Payout Ratio91.10%90.88%90.66%90.44%90.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,074.111,077.831,081.551,085.281,089.011,092.761,156.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)1,003.531,013.611,023.68
Year 2 PV (M)937.58956.51975.62
Year 3 PV (M)875.97902.62929.81
Year 4 PV (M)818.39851.76886.14
Year 5 PV (M)764.60803.77844.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,265.9625,508.9826,802.42
Equity Value (M)28,666.0430,037.2431,462.20
Shares Outstanding (M)399.16399.16399.16
Fair Value$71.82$75.25$78.82
Upside / Downside138.19%149.59%161.43%

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