Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Wynn Macau, Limited (1128.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.25 - $4.49$3.87
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.92$8.50
Blended Fair Value$6.19
Current Price$5.42
Upside14.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.04%-21.41%0.140.000.000.000.000.841.410.590.560.98
YoY Growth--267,272.01%-90.85%-20.43%-52.35%-99.82%-40.00%138.05%5.25%-42.91%-37.51%
Dividend Yield--2.62%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%4.39%8.23%2.46%4.55%10.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,332.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,752.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,580.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)666.47416.54249.93
Cash Retained (M)1,580.321,580.321,580.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-666.47-416.54-249.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)913.851,163.781,330.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,539.765,539.765,539.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-6.49%-5.49%-4.49%
Fair Value$3.25$3.87$4.49
Upside / Downside-40.00%-28.51%-17.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,332.343,149.392,976.492,813.082,658.652,512.692,588.07
Payout Ratio52.58%60.06%67.55%75.03%82.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,752.021,891.562,010.492,110.672,193.792,261.422,393.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-6.49%-5.49%-4.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1,743.441,762.091,780.73
Year 2 PV (M)1,707.971,744.691,781.81
Year 3 PV (M)1,652.671,706.261,760.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,583.241,652.061,723.10
Year 5 PV (M)1,504.261,586.431,672.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,628.2738,629.1340,716.49
Equity Value (M)44,819.8447,080.6549,435.27
Shares Outstanding (M)5,539.765,539.765,539.76
Fair Value$8.09$8.50$8.92
Upside / Downside49.27%56.80%64.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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