Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (0VCO.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.06 - $366.67$218.23
Multi-Stage$44.88 - $49.02$46.91
Blended Fair Value$132.57
Current Price$18.30
Upside624.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.07%4.27%1.281.130.510.070.080.230.631.081.071.03
YoY Growth--13.93%121.56%581.15%-9.02%-64.28%-63.64%-41.65%1.54%3.24%22.23%
Dividend Yield--7.03%7.48%4.26%0.54%1.54%11.09%8.13%10.25%8.25%7.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)370.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)262.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.1846.3627.82
Cash Retained (M)108.34108.34108.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.18-46.36-27.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.1661.9780.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.18201.18201.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.310.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.311.311.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.310.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$87.06$218.23$366.67
Upside / Downside375.76%1,092.50%1,903.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)370.91395.02420.70448.05477.17508.18523.43
Payout Ratio70.79%74.63%78.47%82.32%86.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)262.58294.82330.14368.82411.12457.37484.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)272.21274.79277.37
Year 2 PV (M)281.46286.82292.23
Year 3 PV (M)290.32298.65307.14
Year 4 PV (M)298.80310.30322.11
Year 5 PV (M)306.93321.75337.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,578.577,944.628,324.67
Equity Value (M)9,028.299,436.939,860.68
Shares Outstanding (M)201.18201.18201.18
Fair Value$44.88$46.91$49.02
Upside / Downside145.23%156.33%167.84%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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