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Definitive Analysis

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Cembra Money Bank AG (0QPJ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.16 - $234.37$180.83
Multi-Stage$250.58 - $274.93$262.52
Blended Fair Value$221.68
Current Price$99.70
Upside122.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.11%3.22%4.003.953.853.753.753.603.414.273.223.17
YoY Growth--1.26%2.62%2.53%-0.05%4.26%5.63%-20.22%32.82%1.57%8.77%
Dividend Yield--4.87%6.02%5.00%5.64%3.50%3.40%4.38%4.70%4.33%4.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)340.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)242.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.1242.5725.54
Cash Retained (M)98.5198.5198.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.12-42.57-25.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.3955.9472.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.3829.3829.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.902.48
LTM Dividend per Share8.248.248.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.902.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.2710.1410.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Fair Value$139.16$180.83$234.37
Upside / Downside39.58%81.37%135.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)340.60344.39348.23352.11356.03360.00370.80
Payout Ratio71.08%74.86%78.65%82.43%86.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)242.09257.82273.87290.25306.95324.00342.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Year 1 PV (M)239.04241.43243.82
Year 2 PV (M)235.44240.17244.94
Year 3 PV (M)231.35238.35245.49
Year 4 PV (M)226.85236.05245.53
Year 5 PV (M)222.01233.33245.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,207.216,523.476,852.49
Equity Value (M)7,361.917,712.808,077.37
Shares Outstanding (M)29.3829.3829.38
Fair Value$250.58$262.52$274.93
Upside / Downside151.33%163.31%175.76%

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