Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zurich Insurance Group AG (0QP2.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$661.29 - $1,299.19$912.93
Multi-Stage$980.54 - $1,074.39$1,026.58
Blended Fair Value$969.76
Current Price$699.02
Upside38.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.08%3.46%28.8726.9324.4522.2221.4019.5820.9520.0819.2319.93
YoY Growth--7.20%10.14%10.03%3.86%9.30%-6.53%4.29%4.44%-3.52%-3.01%
Dividend Yield--4.16%5.04%5.11%4.49%5.01%5.49%6.30%6.11%7.22%8.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,853.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,665.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,188.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,170.60731.63438.98
Cash Retained (M)1,188.001,188.001,188.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,170.60-731.63-438.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.40456.38749.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.94143.94143.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.123.175.20
LTM Dividend per Share32.4132.4132.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.123.175.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.5335.5837.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate1.67%2.67%3.67%
Fair Value$661.29$912.93$1,299.19
Upside / Downside-5.40%30.60%85.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,853.006,009.436,170.056,334.956,504.276,678.116,878.45
Payout Ratio79.70%81.76%83.82%85.88%87.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,665.004,913.445,171.835,440.535,719.896,010.306,362.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate1.67%2.67%3.67%
Year 1 PV (M)4,561.174,606.034,650.89
Year 2 PV (M)4,456.834,544.934,633.89
Year 3 PV (M)4,352.244,481.924,614.16
Year 4 PV (M)4,247.664,417.254,591.87
Year 5 PV (M)4,143.324,351.134,567.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)119,381.83125,369.35131,594.73
Equity Value (M)141,143.05147,770.61154,652.74
Shares Outstanding (M)143.94143.94143.94
Fair Value$980.54$1,026.58$1,074.39
Upside / Downside40.27%46.86%53.70%

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