Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Merck & Co., Inc. (0QAH.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$502.12 - $1,489.14$1,395.43
Multi-Stage$262.73 - $287.90$275.08
Blended Fair Value$835.26
Current Price$83.93
Upside895.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.60%4.10%3.112.952.782.622.472.262.052.052.032.03
YoY Growth--5.31%6.18%6.08%6.36%9.13%10.11%0.10%0.84%0.14%-2.48%
Dividend Yield--3.47%2.25%2.61%3.20%3.35%3.08%2.58%3.95%3.35%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,034.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,109.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,925.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,806.802,379.251,427.55
Cash Retained (M)10,925.0010,925.0010,925.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,806.80-2,379.25-1,427.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,118.208,545.759,497.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,520.752,520.752,520.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.823.393.77
LTM Dividend per Share3.223.223.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.823.393.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.046.616.98
WACC / Discount Rate5.86%5.86%5.86%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Fair Value$502.12$1,395.43$1,489.14
Upside / Downside498.26%1,562.62%1,674.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,034.0020,100.2421,226.2222,415.2623,670.9224,996.9125,746.82
Payout Ratio42.60%52.08%61.56%71.04%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,109.0010,468.6413,067.2015,924.0419,059.9522,497.2223,815.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.86%5.86%5.86%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Year 1 PV (M)9,795.489,889.129,982.77
Year 2 PV (M)11,440.7111,660.5011,882.39
Year 3 PV (M)13,045.4513,423.1813,808.14
Year 4 PV (M)14,610.4115,177.1815,760.28
Year 5 PV (M)16,136.3316,922.5417,739.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)597,236.66626,335.86656,558.41
Equity Value (M)662,265.03693,408.39725,731.08
Shares Outstanding (M)2,520.752,520.752,520.75
Fair Value$262.73$275.08$287.90
Upside / Downside213.03%227.75%243.03%

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