Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ascencio S.A. (0P2J.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - GeneralSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.25 - $324.05$193.16
Multi-Stage$143.94 - $157.56$150.62
Blended Fair Value$171.89
Current Price$44.35
Upside287.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.07%8.00%4.153.953.703.653.503.402.491.941.451.12
YoY Growth--5.06%6.76%1.37%4.28%2.94%36.39%28.46%34.15%29.42%-41.85%
Dividend Yield--8.78%7.95%7.05%6.80%7.30%6.16%5.00%3.43%2.31%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.694.812.88
Cash Retained (M)10.1010.1010.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.69-4.81-2.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.415.297.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.606.606.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.801.09
LTM Dividend per Share4.304.304.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.801.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.675.105.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$128.25$193.16$324.05
Upside / Downside189.17%335.53%630.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.4640.0241.6543.3445.0946.9248.33
Payout Ratio73.74%76.99%80.24%83.50%86.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.3630.8233.4236.1839.1242.2344.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)28.5728.8529.13
Year 2 PV (M)28.7429.3029.86
Year 3 PV (M)28.8529.7030.56
Year 4 PV (M)28.9230.0631.23
Year 5 PV (M)28.9530.3931.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)805.38845.22886.63
Equity Value (M)949.42993.521,039.29
Shares Outstanding (M)6.606.606.60
Fair Value$143.94$150.62$157.56
Upside / Downside224.55%239.63%255.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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