Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Medifast, Inc. (0K05.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.15 - $0.22$0.19
Multi-Stage$0.34 - $0.37$0.36
Blended Fair Value$0.27
Current Price$13.67
Upside-98.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-54.18%0.00%0.076.646.515.814.843.222.111.401.080.00
YoY Growth---99.02%1.95%12.16%20.05%50.27%52.83%50.49%29.45%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.48%17.70%6.28%3.40%2.28%5.15%1.61%1.50%2.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)0.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.050.030.02
Cash Retained (M)0.050.050.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.05-0.03-0.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.000.020.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.0011.0011.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-3.67%-2.67%-1.67%
Fair Value$0.15$0.19$0.22
Upside / Downside-98.87%-98.63%-98.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)0.250.240.230.230.220.220.22
Payout Ratio78.63%80.90%83.18%85.45%87.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.200.200.200.200.200.190.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-3.67%-2.67%-1.67%
Year 1 PV (M)0.180.180.18
Year 2 PV (M)0.170.170.17
Year 3 PV (M)0.150.160.16
Year 4 PV (M)0.140.150.15
Year 5 PV (M)0.130.140.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)2.983.143.30
Equity Value (M)3.743.934.11
Shares Outstanding (M)11.0011.0011.00
Fair Value$0.34$0.36$0.37
Upside / Downside-97.51%-97.39%-97.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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