Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.70 - $146.79$104.84
Multi-Stage$93.62 - $102.38$97.92
Blended Fair Value$101.38
Current Price$192.74
Upside-47.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.76%8.21%3.704.044.104.764.844.483.062.482.311.97
YoY Growth---8.49%-1.41%-13.81%-1.72%8.01%46.54%23.42%7.51%17.29%16.98%
Dividend Yield--2.54%1.98%3.04%5.57%9.06%18.99%5.01%3.39%4.56%5.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,517.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,132.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)385.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)303.50189.69113.81
Cash Retained (M)385.51385.51385.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-303.50-189.69-113.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.01195.82271.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)311.75311.75311.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.630.87
LTM Dividend per Share3.633.633.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.630.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.264.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Fair Value$76.70$104.84$146.79
Upside / Downside-60.21%-45.61%-23.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,517.511,571.431,627.271,685.091,744.971,806.971,861.18
Payout Ratio74.60%77.68%80.76%83.84%86.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,132.001,220.641,314.141,412.751,516.711,626.271,721.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)1,121.791,132.731,143.67
Year 2 PV (M)1,109.931,131.681,153.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,096.601,128.991,162.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,081.961,124.781,168.86
Year 5 PV (M)1,066.171,119.181,174.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,709.8724,888.6126,113.78
Equity Value (M)29,186.3230,525.9731,916.23
Shares Outstanding (M)311.75311.75311.75
Fair Value$93.62$97.92$102.38
Upside / Downside-51.43%-49.20%-46.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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