Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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M&T Bank Corporation (0JW2.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$684.88 - $3,345.46$1,460.92
Multi-Stage$371.09 - $405.80$388.13
Blended Fair Value$924.52
Current Price$195.46
Upside373.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.14%9.20%5.435.274.763.523.453.353.102.782.682.28
YoY Growth--3.11%10.70%35.13%2.14%2.89%8.18%11.58%3.51%17.83%1.03%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.70%4.01%2.06%2.34%3.37%1.92%1.54%1.85%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,771.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)925.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,846.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)554.20346.38207.83
Cash Retained (M)1,846.001,846.001,846.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-554.20-346.38-207.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,291.801,499.631,638.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.73164.73164.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.849.109.94
LTM Dividend per Share5.625.625.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.849.109.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.4614.7215.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$684.88$1,460.92$3,345.46
Upside / Downside250.39%647.43%1,611.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,771.002,951.123,142.943,347.233,564.803,796.513,910.41
Payout Ratio33.38%44.71%56.03%67.35%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)925.001,319.301,760.952,254.442,804.653,416.863,617.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,214.911,226.421,237.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,493.301,521.741,550.45
Year 3 PV (M)1,760.511,811.051,862.54
Year 4 PV (M)2,016.872,094.432,174.21
Year 5 PV (M)2,262.692,371.982,485.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,379.1254,909.0557,535.81
Equity Value (M)61,127.3963,934.6766,846.40
Shares Outstanding (M)164.73164.73164.73
Fair Value$371.09$388.13$405.80
Upside / Downside89.85%98.57%107.62%

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