Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lam Research Corporation (0JT5.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.51 - $120.10$88.88
Multi-Stage$51.89 - $56.61$54.21
Blended Fair Value$71.54
Current Price$131.09
Upside-45.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.84%25.77%0.900.800.710.640.570.510.530.240.190.15
YoY Growth--12.82%12.23%11.36%12.15%10.68%-3.17%120.52%26.33%27.88%64.06%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.97%1.14%1.71%0.92%1.52%2.29%1.55%1.12%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,810.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,180.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,629.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,162.09726.30435.78
Cash Retained (M)4,629.904,629.904,629.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,162.09-726.30-435.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,467.813,903.594,194.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,281.451,281.451,281.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.713.053.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.713.053.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.633.974.19
WACC / Discount Rate11.25%11.25%11.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.51$88.88$120.10
Upside / Downside-49.27%-32.20%-8.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,810.436,188.116,590.347,018.717,474.937,960.808,199.62
Payout Ratio20.32%34.25%48.19%62.13%76.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,180.542,119.683,175.924,360.525,685.697,164.727,584.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.25%11.25%11.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,887.371,905.261,923.15
Year 2 PV (M)2,517.922,565.882,614.29
Year 3 PV (M)3,078.203,166.573,256.61
Year 4 PV (M)3,573.793,711.233,852.59
Year 5 PV (M)4,009.884,203.564,404.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,427.2653,911.2156,490.24
Equity Value (M)66,494.4269,463.7172,541.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,281.451,281.451,281.45
Fair Value$51.89$54.21$56.61
Upside / Downside-60.42%-58.65%-56.82%

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