Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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HCA Healthcare, Inc. (0J1R.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Equipment & ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$807.03 - $3,765.72$1,422.91
Multi-Stage$563.70 - $617.54$590.12
Blended Fair Value$1,006.51
Current Price$426.20
Upside136.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.64%58.26%2.792.672.642.520.622.221.970.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.39%1.23%4.65%307.84%-72.18%12.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.81%1.00%1.01%0.33%2.48%1.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,375.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)682.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,693.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,275.00796.88478.13
Cash Retained (M)5,693.005,693.005,693.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,275.00-796.88-478.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,418.004,896.135,214.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)247.28247.28247.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.8719.8021.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.8719.8021.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.6222.5623.85
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate4.70%5.70%6.70%
Fair Value$807.03$1,422.91$3,765.72
Upside / Downside89.35%233.86%783.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,375.006,738.287,122.277,528.137,957.138,410.578,662.88
Payout Ratio10.70%26.56%42.42%58.28%74.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)682.001,789.583,021.184,387.345,899.387,569.518,013.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate4.70%5.70%6.70%
Year 1 PV (M)1,650.911,666.681,682.45
Year 2 PV (M)2,571.112,620.462,670.27
Year 3 PV (M)3,444.423,544.063,645.60
Year 4 PV (M)4,272.614,438.194,608.55
Year 5 PV (M)5,057.385,303.565,559.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)122,394.13128,351.93134,539.51
Equity Value (M)139,390.54145,924.87152,705.61
Shares Outstanding (M)247.28247.28247.28
Fair Value$563.70$590.12$617.54
Upside / Downside32.26%38.46%44.89%

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