Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cummins Inc. (0I58.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$501.29 - $1,561.95$803.28
Multi-Stage$389.07 - $425.56$406.98
Blended Fair Value$605.13
Current Price$417.79
Upside44.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.95%6.59%7.006.656.185.845.655.505.195.064.884.49
YoY Growth--5.21%7.72%5.69%3.45%2.76%5.99%2.43%3.70%8.68%21.48%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.26%2.60%2.80%2.16%4.18%3.20%3.19%3.26%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,668.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,028.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,640.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)533.60333.50200.10
Cash Retained (M)1,640.001,640.001,640.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-533.60-333.50-200.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,106.401,306.501,439.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.45138.45138.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.999.4410.40
LTM Dividend per Share7.437.437.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.999.4410.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.4216.8617.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate4.59%5.59%6.59%
Fair Value$501.29$803.28$1,561.95
Upside / Downside19.99%92.27%273.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,668.002,817.072,974.473,140.663,316.143,501.423,606.46
Payout Ratio38.53%48.82%59.12%69.41%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,028.001,375.421,758.462,180.002,643.163,151.283,335.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate4.59%5.59%6.59%
Year 1 PV (M)1,263.771,275.861,287.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,484.571,513.091,541.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,691.061,740.031,789.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,883.901,957.002,032.19
Year 5 PV (M)2,063.742,164.312,268.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,479.7547,695.9749,997.77
Equity Value (M)53,866.7956,346.2558,918.48
Shares Outstanding (M)138.45138.45138.45
Fair Value$389.07$406.98$425.56
Upside / Downside-6.87%-2.59%1.86%

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