Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cardinal Health, Inc. (0HTG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Equipment & ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.32 - $104.81$83.91
Multi-Stage$136.32 - $150.04$143.05
Blended Fair Value$113.48
Current Price$156.96
Upside-27.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.79%0.72%2.052.072.182.322.382.362.402.412.402.13
YoY Growth---1.00%-4.95%-6.08%-2.44%0.70%-1.39%-0.69%0.69%12.70%11.30%
Dividend Yield--1.31%1.88%2.51%3.48%4.81%5.03%5.08%4.47%3.58%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,595.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)495.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,100.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319.00199.38119.63
Cash Retained (M)1,100.001,100.001,100.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-319.00-199.38-119.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)781.00900.63980.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.75240.75240.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.243.744.07
LTM Dividend per Share2.062.062.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.243.744.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.305.806.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.28%-0.28%0.72%
Fair Value$66.32$83.91$104.81
Upside / Downside-57.75%-46.54%-33.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,595.001,590.461,585.941,581.431,576.931,572.451,619.62
Payout Ratio31.03%42.83%54.62%66.41%78.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)495.00681.16866.251,050.291,233.271,415.211,498.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.28%-0.28%0.72%
Year 1 PV (M)632.55638.96645.37
Year 2 PV (M)747.03762.24777.61
Year 3 PV (M)841.10866.93893.27
Year 4 PV (M)917.16954.90993.78
Year 5 PV (M)977.361,027.881,080.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,703.8830,187.5031,731.85
Equity Value (M)32,819.0934,438.4036,122.33
Shares Outstanding (M)240.75240.75240.75
Fair Value$136.32$143.05$150.04
Upside / Downside-13.15%-8.86%-4.41%

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