Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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CSX Corporation (0HRJ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.38 - $41.20$30.14
Multi-Stage$28.81 - $31.59$30.18
Blended Fair Value$30.16
Current Price$35.51
Upside-15.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%3.99%0.490.470.450.440.420.400.400.380.360.36
YoY Growth--5.44%3.52%1.55%5.27%4.46%1.60%6.07%4.12%-0.87%9.06%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.27%1.51%1.19%1.31%2.12%1.56%2.02%2.32%4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)960.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,921.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)576.20360.13216.08
Cash Retained (M)1,921.001,921.001,921.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-576.20-360.13-216.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,344.801,560.881,704.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.251,887.251,887.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.830.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.830.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.341.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$22.38$30.14$41.20
Upside / Downside-36.96%-15.12%16.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,881.002,967.083,055.743,147.053,241.083,337.923,438.06
Payout Ratio33.32%44.66%55.99%67.33%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)960.001,325.021,711.002,118.872,549.573,004.133,180.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)1,220.021,231.981,243.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,450.561,479.151,508.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,653.991,703.121,753.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,832.481,905.421,980.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,988.082,087.482,190.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,232.7048,544.1650,947.17
Equity Value (M)54,377.8456,951.3159,623.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.251,887.251,887.25
Fair Value$28.81$30.18$31.59
Upside / Downside-18.86%-15.02%-11.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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