Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Aecom (0H9N.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.05 - $48.76$40.58
Multi-Stage$59.18 - $65.10$62.08
Blended Fair Value$51.33
Current Price$130.47
Upside-60.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.860.720.470.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.90%19.81%51.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.81%0.78%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)561.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)428.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.3570.2242.13
Cash Retained (M)428.20428.20428.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.35-70.22-42.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)315.85357.98386.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.37133.37133.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.372.682.89
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.372.682.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.373.693.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$33.05$40.58$48.76
Upside / Downside-74.67%-68.89%-62.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)561.77556.16550.59545.09539.64534.24550.27
Payout Ratio23.78%37.02%50.27%63.51%76.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.57205.90276.76346.19414.20480.82509.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)188.74190.66192.59
Year 2 PV (M)232.55237.32242.14
Year 3 PV (M)266.64274.89283.30
Year 4 PV (M)292.44304.56317.05
Year 5 PV (M)311.18327.38344.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,600.946,944.677,302.57
Equity Value (M)7,892.498,279.488,681.90
Shares Outstanding (M)133.37133.37133.37
Fair Value$59.18$62.08$65.10
Upside / Downside-54.64%-52.42%-50.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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