Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Aflac Incorporated (0H68.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.55 - $405.42$245.84
Multi-Stage$172.00 - $188.55$180.12
Blended Fair Value$212.98
Current Price$111.70
Upside90.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.11%5.21%1.991.771.791.571.411.411.451.211.211.20
YoY Growth--12.53%-1.33%14.50%11.18%-0.26%-2.77%19.97%0.46%0.30%0.31%
Dividend Yield--1.79%2.08%2.78%2.43%2.75%4.13%2.91%2.77%3.33%3.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,169.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,173.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,996.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)833.80521.13312.68
Cash Retained (M)2,996.002,996.002,996.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-833.80-521.13-312.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,162.202,474.882,683.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)545.58545.58545.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.964.544.92
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.964.544.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.116.697.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Fair Value$164.55$245.84$405.42
Upside / Downside47.32%120.09%262.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,169.004,344.604,527.594,718.294,917.035,124.135,277.85
Payout Ratio28.14%40.51%52.88%65.25%77.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,173.001,759.952,394.273,078.903,816.954,611.724,882.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Year 1 PV (M)1,628.331,644.101,659.88
Year 2 PV (M)2,049.532,089.442,129.73
Year 3 PV (M)2,438.472,510.042,582.99
Year 4 PV (M)2,796.922,906.903,020.10
Year 5 PV (M)3,126.563,280.993,441.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,799.1685,839.3790,037.67
Equity Value (M)93,838.9798,270.84102,871.83
Shares Outstanding (M)545.58545.58545.58
Fair Value$172.00$180.12$188.55
Upside / Downside53.98%61.25%68.80%

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