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Definitive Analysis

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Groupe Guillin S.A. (0D1X.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$208.76 - $1,119.52$377.99
Multi-Stage$183.84 - $201.56$192.53
Blended Fair Value$285.26
Current Price$28.35
Upside906.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.89%18.59%1.100.800.750.910.310.600.700.650.410.38
YoY Growth--37.49%6.67%-17.66%198.28%-49.10%-14.55%8.00%58.58%7.89%89.99%
Dividend Yield--3.88%2.59%3.45%3.36%1.24%3.69%3.62%1.89%1.25%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.8414.908.94
Cash Retained (M)80.3680.3680.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.84-14.90-8.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.5265.4671.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.4918.4918.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.063.543.86
LTM Dividend per Share2.102.102.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.063.543.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.165.645.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Fair Value$208.76$377.99$1,119.52
Upside / Downside636.35%1,233.29%3,848.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.18124.84130.78136.99143.51150.33154.84
Payout Ratio32.57%44.06%55.54%67.03%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.8255.0072.6491.83112.67135.29143.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)51.2451.7452.23
Year 2 PV (M)63.0464.2665.50
Year 3 PV (M)74.2476.4178.62
Year 4 PV (M)84.8788.1991.60
Year 5 PV (M)94.9499.60104.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,030.133,178.993,333.66
Equity Value (M)3,398.463,559.203,726.06
Shares Outstanding (M)18.4918.4918.49
Fair Value$183.84$192.53$201.56
Upside / Downside548.46%579.13%610.97%

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