Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Stadler Rail AG (0A0C.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.92 - $21.35$17.39
Multi-Stage$28.80 - $31.62$30.18
Blended Fair Value$23.78
Current Price$19.55
Upside21.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.31%0.00%0.890.890.890.851.190.690.690.580.190.00
YoY Growth---0.03%0.00%5.85%-29.17%72.80%-0.40%19.53%201.44%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.50%2.96%2.73%2.12%2.95%1.43%1.16%0.97%0.32%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.8519.2811.57
Cash Retained (M)44.3244.3244.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.85-19.28-11.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.4725.0432.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.51100.51100.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.250.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.250.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.341.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Fair Value$13.92$17.39$21.35
Upside / Downside-28.79%-11.06%9.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.23153.21152.20151.20150.20149.21153.68
Payout Ratio71.26%75.01%78.76%82.51%86.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.91114.92119.87124.74129.55134.29142.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)106.31107.39108.48
Year 2 PV (M)102.58104.68106.79
Year 3 PV (M)98.75101.80104.90
Year 4 PV (M)94.8798.79102.83
Year 5 PV (M)90.9795.69100.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,400.612,525.172,654.85
Equity Value (M)2,894.093,033.523,178.46
Shares Outstanding (M)100.51100.51100.51
Fair Value$28.80$30.18$31.62
Upside / Downside47.29%54.39%61.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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