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Definitive Analysis

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Leoch International Technology Limited (0842.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.73 - $135.62$127.10
Multi-Stage$19.01 - $20.81$19.89
Blended Fair Value$73.50
Current Price$2.23
Upside3,195.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.05%0.00%0.100.120.000.000.020.020.000.040.020.02
YoY Growth---19.52%0.00%0.00%-100.00%3.85%0.00%-100.00%119.16%22.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.54%11.20%0.00%0.00%4.43%3.13%0.00%3.79%2.50%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)986.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)309.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)676.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.28123.3073.98
Cash Retained (M)676.58676.58676.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.28-123.30-73.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)479.30553.28602.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,446.411,446.411,446.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.73$127.10$135.62
Upside / Downside2,130.18%5,599.55%5,981.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)986.391,050.511,118.791,191.511,268.961,351.441,391.98
Payout Ratio31.41%43.13%54.85%66.56%78.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)309.81453.05613.60793.11993.361,216.301,287.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)420.78424.77428.76
Year 2 PV (M)529.31539.39549.57
Year 3 PV (M)635.43653.67672.26
Year 4 PV (M)739.19767.62796.86
Year 5 PV (M)840.62881.22923.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,331.7325,506.9626,727.17
Equity Value (M)27,497.0728,773.6430,098.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1,446.411,446.411,446.41
Fair Value$19.01$19.89$20.81
Upside / Downside752.49%792.07%833.13%

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