Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Carpenter Tan Holdings Limited (0837.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.57 - $137.29$65.23
Multi-Stage$38.88 - $42.65$40.73
Blended Fair Value$52.98
Current Price$5.34
Upside892.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.40%3.64%0.360.230.330.160.250.450.260.230.240.26
YoY Growth--58.23%-31.24%104.05%-35.14%-44.55%76.48%12.63%-5.41%-6.95%2.38%
Dividend Yield--6.63%5.09%10.91%5.70%6.88%8.82%6.31%5.57%7.01%7.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0545.0327.02
Cash Retained (M)270.27270.27270.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.05-45.03-27.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)198.22225.24243.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.71248.71248.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.910.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.910.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$39.57$65.23$137.29
Upside / Downside640.95%1,121.56%2,470.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.27376.17392.79410.13428.24447.15460.57
Payout Ratio24.98%37.98%50.99%63.99%77.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.00142.89200.27262.45329.73402.44426.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)132.95134.24135.52
Year 2 PV (M)173.39176.76180.16
Year 3 PV (M)211.42217.61223.92
Year 4 PV (M)247.14256.84266.82
Year 5 PV (M)280.66294.50308.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,625.349,050.509,492.27
Equity Value (M)9,670.9010,130.4410,607.57
Shares Outstanding (M)248.71248.71248.71
Fair Value$38.88$40.73$42.65
Upside / Downside628.16%662.76%698.68%

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