Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Foods Limited (0506.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.21 - $28.67$17.95
Multi-Stage$14.92 - $16.37$15.63
Blended Fair Value$16.79
Current Price$2.80
Upside499.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.89%0.00%0.150.120.110.090.040.030.060.860.020.00
YoY Growth--22.71%13.57%19.32%103.67%27.02%-42.59%-93.02%4,451.45%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.30%4.39%4.30%3.59%2.04%1.28%2.39%23.53%0.64%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,670.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)751.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)919.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)334.07208.79125.28
Cash Retained (M)919.00919.00919.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-334.07-208.79-125.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)584.93710.20793.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,797.222,797.222,797.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate2.59%3.59%4.59%
Fair Value$12.21$17.95$28.67
Upside / Downside335.93%541.13%923.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,670.351,730.311,792.431,856.781,923.441,992.492,052.27
Payout Ratio44.98%53.99%62.99%71.99%81.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)751.35934.121,129.031,336.751,557.921,793.241,898.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate2.59%3.59%4.59%
Year 1 PV (M)867.78876.24884.70
Year 2 PV (M)974.37993.461,012.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,071.711,103.351,135.62
Year 4 PV (M)1,160.331,206.231,253.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,240.751,302.411,366.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,433.3738,244.0040,125.92
Equity Value (M)41,748.3143,725.7045,778.96
Shares Outstanding (M)2,797.222,797.222,797.22
Fair Value$14.92$15.63$16.37
Upside / Downside433.03%458.28%484.49%

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