Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Limited (0411.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.97 - $31.03$25.08
Multi-Stage$45.83 - $50.50$48.12
Blended Fair Value$36.60
Current Price$10.10
Upside262.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.330.420.480.460.440.410.360.300.23
YoY Growth---100.00%-23.29%-10.76%3.91%4.47%7.57%14.13%19.66%29.49%9.53%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.62%3.92%4.17%3.05%3.30%2.63%2.44%2.59%2.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)503.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.7162.9437.77
Cash Retained (M)362.68362.68362.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.71-62.94-37.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)261.96299.73324.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.92237.92237.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.261.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.261.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.97$25.08$31.03
Upside / Downside97.71%148.33%207.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)503.55498.52493.53488.60483.71478.87493.24
Payout Ratio27.98%40.38%52.79%65.19%77.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.88201.31260.52318.52375.34430.99456.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)187.45189.36191.27
Year 2 PV (M)225.88230.51235.19
Year 3 PV (M)257.15265.10273.22
Year 4 PV (M)282.16293.85305.90
Year 5 PV (M)301.68317.39333.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,648.9710,151.4110,674.57
Equity Value (M)10,903.2811,447.6312,013.90
Shares Outstanding (M)237.92237.92237.92
Fair Value$45.83$48.12$50.50
Upside / Downside353.74%376.39%399.96%

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