Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangdong Investment Limited (0270.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.60 - $21.88$16.58
Multi-Stage$24.68 - $27.07$25.85
Blended Fair Value$21.22
Current Price$6.56
Upside223.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.91%4.71%0.360.610.610.590.580.550.500.440.340.29
YoY Growth---40.81%0.13%2.99%2.29%6.09%9.60%12.36%29.00%20.19%25.30%
Dividend Yield--5.41%10.56%7.67%6.00%4.16%3.36%3.30%4.26%3.37%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,419.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,382.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,283.81802.38481.43
Cash Retained (M)36.1636.1636.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,283.81-802.38-481.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,247.65-766.22-445.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,537.826,537.826,537.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$12.60$16.58$21.88
Upside / Downside92.15%152.79%233.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,419.036,488.676,559.076,630.236,702.176,774.886,978.13
Payout Ratio99.44%97.55%95.66%93.77%91.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,382.886,329.666,274.546,217.486,158.446,097.396,454.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)5,894.425,953.316,012.21
Year 2 PV (M)5,441.305,550.585,660.94
Year 3 PV (M)5,021.065,173.085,328.13
Year 4 PV (M)4,631.414,819.305,012.85
Year 5 PV (M)4,270.184,487.824,714.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)136,090.05143,026.00150,241.91
Equity Value (M)161,348.42169,010.08176,970.27
Shares Outstanding (M)6,537.826,537.826,537.82
Fair Value$24.68$25.85$27.07
Upside / Downside276.21%294.07%312.63%

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