Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

First Pacific Company Limited (0142.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.18 - $52.84$42.60
Multi-Stage$10.80 - $11.86$11.32
Blended Fair Value$26.96
Current Price$0.71
Upside3,707.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%1.40%0.030.030.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.03
YoY Growth--11.93%7.01%21.26%16.96%17.72%-10.72%-0.27%0.81%-35.76%-0.35%
Dividend Yield--5.40%7.03%8.77%5.86%5.79%4.61%4.55%2.52%2.50%4.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,147.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)894.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)229.42143.3986.03
Cash Retained (M)894.90894.90894.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-229.42-143.39-86.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)665.48751.51808.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,249.374,249.374,249.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Fair Value$14.18$42.60$52.84
Upside / Downside1,902.33%5,915.96%7,362.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,147.101,202.211,259.971,320.511,383.951,450.451,493.96
Payout Ratio21.99%35.59%49.19%62.79%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.20427.85619.80829.211,057.301,305.401,381.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Year 1 PV (M)402.11405.99409.86
Year 2 PV (M)547.47558.07568.77
Year 3 PV (M)688.38708.46728.94
Year 4 PV (M)824.93857.18890.37
Year 5 PV (M)957.231,004.241,053.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,475.7744,561.5246,728.41
Equity Value (M)45,895.8948,095.4650,379.42
Shares Outstanding (M)4,249.374,249.374,249.37
Fair Value$10.80$11.32$11.86
Upside / Downside1,425.36%1,498.46%1,574.37%

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