Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hanexpress.Co., Ltd (014130.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20,059.93 - $44,907.29$29,025.50
Multi-Stage$25,735.95 - $28,257.31$26,972.72
Blended Fair Value$27,999.11
Current Price$3,535.00
Upside692.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.97%0.00%49.78129.860.000.0071.1160.9581.2771.1171.1150.79
YoY Growth---61.67%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.67%-25.00%14.29%0.00%40.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.50%2.71%0.00%0.00%1.15%1.55%1.73%1.08%1.22%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,233.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,521.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,711.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,446.601,529.13917.48
Cash Retained (M)9,711.679,711.679,711.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,446.60-1,529.13-917.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,265.078,182.548,794.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.8111.8111.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share615.04692.71744.49
LTM Dividend per Share213.45213.45213.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share615.04692.71744.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend828.49906.16957.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Fair Value$20,059.93$29,025.50$44,907.29
Upside / Downside467.47%721.09%1,170.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,233.0212,635.5313,051.2813,480.7013,924.2614,382.4114,813.89
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,521.354,357.846,312.468,390.9810,599.4612,944.1713,702.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)4,051.694,091.304,130.91
Year 2 PV (M)5,456.665,563.875,672.13
Year 3 PV (M)6,743.816,943.547,147.16
Year 4 PV (M)7,920.278,234.568,558.11
Year 5 PV (M)8,992.809,441.059,907.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)270,836.01284,335.99298,369.02
Equity Value (M)304,001.25318,610.31333,784.33
Shares Outstanding (M)11.8111.8111.81
Fair Value$25,735.95$26,972.72$28,257.31
Upside / Downside628.03%663.02%699.36%

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