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Definitive Analysis

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HDC HOLDINGS CO.,Ltd (012630.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$851,520.77 - $1,003,235.74$940,178.81
Multi-Stage$204,527.65 - $224,255.39$214,208.52
Blended Fair Value$577,193.66
Current Price$17,400.00
Upside3,217.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.27%23.62%978.24912.08969.201,070.97597.29224.131,564.791,200.89797.45492.62
YoY Growth--7.25%-5.89%-9.50%79.31%166.49%-85.68%30.30%50.59%61.88%319.69%
Dividend Yield--6.57%10.94%14.34%15.08%5.31%3.02%7.98%3.12%1.96%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251,723.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17,510.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)234,212.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50,344.6531,465.4118,879.24
Cash Retained (M)234,212.42234,212.42234,212.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-50,344.65-31,465.41-18,879.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)183,867.76202,747.01215,333.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.9049.9049.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share3,684.724,063.074,315.29
LTM Dividend per Share350.92350.92350.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share3,684.724,063.074,315.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,035.644,413.994,666.21
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$851,520.77$940,178.81$1,003,235.74
Upside / Downside4,793.80%5,303.33%5,665.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251,723.26268,085.27285,510.81304,069.02323,833.50344,882.68355,229.16
Payout Ratio6.96%23.57%40.17%56.78%73.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17,510.8563,174.59114,700.64172,658.16237,665.55310,394.41328,586.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59,305.4659,867.6060,429.74
Year 2 PV (M)101,081.20103,006.51104,949.98
Year 3 PV (M)142,838.05146,938.42151,116.51
Year 4 PV (M)184,576.03191,674.31198,975.37
Year 5 PV (M)226,295.15237,225.29248,573.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,491,833.919,950,293.0410,426,298.47
Equity Value (M)10,205,929.8010,689,005.1611,190,343.84
Shares Outstanding (M)49.9049.9049.90
Fair Value$204,527.65$214,208.52$224,255.39
Upside / Downside1,075.45%1,131.08%1,188.82%

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