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Definitive Analysis

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Kumho Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (011780.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$179,480.30 - $353,685.79$248,046.78
Multi-Stage$158,960.49 - $173,877.41$166,281.96
Blended Fair Value$207,164.37
Current Price$112,300.00
Upside84.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.89%6.21%2,763.975,287.8910,122.584,174.121,473.131,322.25983.90796.34809.891,513.74
YoY Growth---47.73%-47.76%142.51%183.35%11.41%34.39%23.55%-1.67%-46.50%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.80%7.04%2.69%0.56%2.04%1.00%0.83%1.03%2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)297,183.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57,516.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)239,667.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59,436.6737,147.9222,288.75
Cash Retained (M)239,667.30239,667.30239,667.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-59,436.67-37,147.92-22,288.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)180,230.62202,519.38217,378.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.7427.7427.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share6,496.087,299.447,835.01
LTM Dividend per Share2,073.062,073.062,073.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share6,496.087,299.447,835.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,569.159,372.509,908.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Fair Value$179,480.30$248,046.78$353,685.79
Upside / Downside59.82%120.88%214.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)297,183.37312,654.35328,930.72346,054.41364,069.55383,022.53394,513.20
Payout Ratio19.35%33.48%47.61%61.74%75.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57,516.08104,686.01156,611.28213,659.16276,222.28344,720.27364,924.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Year 1 PV (M)94,971.5395,882.9196,794.29
Year 2 PV (M)128,893.96131,379.66133,889.11
Year 3 PV (M)159,527.59164,164.47168,890.35
Year 4 PV (M)187,101.72194,387.76201,884.57
Year 5 PV (M)211,831.55222,192.60232,955.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,627,952.993,805,402.453,989,728.45
Equity Value (M)4,410,279.344,613,409.864,824,141.92
Shares Outstanding (M)27.7427.7427.74
Fair Value$158,960.49$166,281.96$173,877.41
Upside / Downside41.55%48.07%54.83%

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