Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chow Sang Sang Holdings International Limited (0116.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.72 - $33.90$28.03
Multi-Stage$54.78 - $60.37$57.52
Blended Fair Value$42.78
Current Price$8.52
Upside402.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.06%-1.80%0.550.350.430.560.300.580.570.440.580.61
YoY Growth--57.14%-18.60%-23.21%86.67%-48.28%1.75%29.64%-24.14%-4.92%-7.58%
Dividend Yield--8.50%3.97%4.17%5.15%3.42%6.00%4.92%2.35%4.04%4.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,892.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)749.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,142.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)378.56236.60141.96
Cash Retained (M)1,142.901,142.901,142.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-378.56-236.60-141.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)764.34906.301,000.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)675.61675.61675.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.341.48
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.341.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.06%-2.06%-1.06%
Fair Value$22.72$28.03$33.90
Upside / Downside166.64%229.05%297.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,892.791,853.861,815.731,778.391,741.811,705.991,757.17
Payout Ratio39.62%49.69%59.77%69.85%79.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)749.89921.271,085.281,242.161,392.121,535.391,625.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.06%-2.06%-1.06%
Year 1 PV (M)856.15864.98873.81
Year 2 PV (M)937.27956.71976.35
Year 3 PV (M)996.931,028.101,059.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,038.311,081.821,126.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,064.221,120.251,178.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,117.7833,808.8335,570.37
Equity Value (M)37,010.6538,860.6840,785.74
Shares Outstanding (M)675.61675.61675.61
Fair Value$54.78$57.52$60.37
Upside / Downside542.98%575.12%608.56%

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