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Definitive Analysis

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Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co., Ltd. (005300.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,168,373.94 - $1,376,542.46$1,290,021.87
Multi-Stage$285,674.21 - $312,859.71$299,016.19
Blended Fair Value$794,519.03
Current Price$115,300.00
Upside589.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.24%18.75%3,589.163,445.962,985.163,101.602,204.672,204.672,694.531,357.861,242.24778.55
YoY Growth--4.16%15.44%-3.75%40.68%0.00%-18.18%98.44%9.31%59.56%20.96%
Dividend Yield--3.36%2.64%1.81%1.70%1.62%2.59%1.53%0.89%0.88%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69,605.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36,660.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,944.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,921.168,700.735,220.44
Cash Retained (M)32,944.9032,944.9032,944.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,921.16-8,700.73-5,220.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,023.7424,244.1727,724.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.0610.0610.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,891.732,410.862,756.94
LTM Dividend per Share3,645.583,645.583,645.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,891.732,410.862,756.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,537.326,056.446,402.52
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,168,373.94$1,290,021.87$1,376,542.46
Upside / Downside913.33%1,018.84%1,093.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69,605.8174,130.1978,948.6584,080.3189,545.5395,365.9998,226.97
Payout Ratio52.67%60.14%67.60%75.07%82.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36,660.9144,578.5353,370.5463,117.1873,905.3985,829.3990,859.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41,843.9342,240.5542,637.18
Year 2 PV (M)47,023.5247,919.1848,823.30
Year 3 PV (M)52,199.6853,698.1455,225.01
Year 4 PV (M)57,372.4059,578.7861,848.20
Year 5 PV (M)62,541.7165,562.4968,698.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,611,830.032,737,982.402,868,962.91
Equity Value (M)2,872,811.263,006,981.553,146,195.50
Shares Outstanding (M)10.0610.0610.06
Fair Value$285,674.21$299,016.19$312,859.71
Upside / Downside147.77%159.34%171.34%

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